IN ITS SCOPE and severity, the trade war took markets by surprise. On April 3rd, the day after President Donald Trump laid out an unprecedented array of tariffs, the Russell 3000, one of the broadest measures of the American stockmarket, fell by 5%. It then fell by 6% on April 4th, when China announced that it would strike back with a duty of 34% on all American goods. Market pricing in a range of asset classes tells a worrying story: investors are expecting a severe economic slowdown.