The first proper winter in three years had already reignited energy debates. With temperatures frigid and Asian competition for supplies fierce, the spot price at the Dutch Transfer Title Facility (TTF), Europe’s gas-trading hub, hit €58 ($61) per megawatt hour (MWh) on February 10th, its highest in two years (see chart). Then, on February 12th, came Donald Trump’s announcement that negotiations over an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine would start “immediately”—a statement that financial markets appear to be taking seriously.