THE PREMIERE on February 28th of a new staging of “Macbeth” in Kyiv was initially eclipsed by the diplomatic disaster the same day between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in the White House. The production has since become the talk of the city’s elite. Ivan Urivsky, the director, says he decided to put on the tragedy after sensing a change in the country’s mood since Mr Trump’s election: “You can’t do theatre without thinking about politics, war or the people watching.” His viewers are drawing parallels between Shakespeare’s characters and current events. For some, Macbeth resembles the bloodthirsty dictator in Moscow. For others the story of ambition, power and treachery feels closer to home.

In Kyiv, daggers are being sharpened around Mr Zelensky. For months the Ukrainian president has faced intense pressure from Vladimir Putin, who questioned his legitimacy without a hint of irony, and from Mr Trump, who has repeated Mr Putin’s talking-points. They pushed Mr Zelensky to hold elections in the middle of the war, believing no doubt that Ukrainian voters would do them the favour of unseating him. Two months ago he was believed to be dead-set against a vote. But Mr Trump’s treatment of him in early March has bolstered his ratings and appears to have changed his calculus. Preparations are under way for Mr Zelensky to face the electorate for a second time, and soon.

Government sources say Mr Zelensky called a meeting in late March to instruct his team to be ready for a vote after a full ceasefire, should one come, as the Americans hope, by late April. The first confirmation may come in the run-up to May 5th, the deadline for a parliamentary vote to extend martial law, which expires on May 8th. Cancelling martial law is necessary to start an election process. Sources differ on the timeline, but most say Mr Zelensky is aiming for the summer. The law requires 60 days for campaigning, so the soonest date would be early July. But some sources say the campaign would need three months, the time election authorities are said to have told parliament they require to reconstitute voter lists in wartime.

Petro Poroshenko, leader of the largest opposition party, predicts elections could come “any time from August to October”. He claims the campaign started with Mr Zelensky’s decision to freeze his assets in February. The move was said to be linked to his long-running trial for alleged treason, but some believe Mr Poroshenko’s trip to America in February—where he met some of Mr Trump’s people—lit the fuse. The former president says Mr Zelensky’s aides warned him not to go, but ascribed this to their “schizophrenia…and paranoia”. The sanctions, he continues, were meant both to rule out his candidacy and to warn off Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s former top general and the one man with a good chance of beating Mr Zelensky if he runs. A government source privately says Mr Poroshenko is not a serious threat, but Mr Zelensky’s dislike of him speeded up the sanctions decision.

That official thinks Mr Zelensky will try for a July election, hoping a short timetable would let him run unopposed. Such a turn would benefit not only the president, since “a long campaign would tear the country apart.” In fact, a rushed vote risks worsening the already bitter relations between the powerful, centralised presidential office and the rest of Ukraine’s political world.

Mr Zelensky’s office denies it is angling for elections. If it tries, it may find them hard to pull off. Opposition leaders insist a quick vote is logistically impossible. Achieving a ceasefire before May 8th would be difficult enough, says Serhiy Vlasenko, a senior lawmaker with the Batkivshchyna party. Finding a way for millions of voters abroad, in the trenches, or in regions occupied by Russia to cast ballots would be “even harder”. The government could use its well-regarded Diia smartphone app. But that would raise questions of transparency and mean changing the constitution, requiring a two-thirds majority in parliament—difficult, since opposition parties oppose voting in wartime. They say a fair election means dismantling wartime propaganda and censorship.

Messrs Putin and Trump may not now want a quick election either. Both presumably demanded one believing it would lead to Mr Zelensky’s exit. With the calculation flipped upside down, they might not sit quiet while he fast-tracks to a second term. Mr Putin holds many cards: his drones and missiles could make cancelling martial law—let alone holding a vote—impossible. But many think elections could help him destabilise Ukraine even if Mr Zelensky wins. An intelligence officer predicts an election campaign would let the Russians turn up their influence: “They will use opinion leaders, soldiers and the opposition to do their bidding.”

Things will not be easier for Ukraine’s next president, whoever that may be and whenever elected. Mr Trump’s rushed diplomacy could lead to a bad peace agreement. In time, some Ukrainians may call for a tougher, more militaristic government. For all his flaws, Volodymyr Zelensky depends too much on popular approval to ever become a true dictator. Whoever comes after him may be less circumspect. “Whether Caligula or Macbeth, abuse of power is a constant theme in history,” says Mr Urivsky. Theatre lets people “see ourselves in some of the terrible characters. And we hope, as Ukrainians, that we might avoid repeating their mistakes.”■

To stay on top of the biggest European stories, sign up to Café Europa, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.