FOR 50 YEARS Russia’s foothold in the Mediterranean has been bound up with the Assad dynasty in Syria. It was in 1971 that Hafez al-Assad—father of Bashar, Syria’s dictator until last week—became president of the country. And it was the same year that the Soviet Union signed a deal with Syria to lease a port at Tartus on Syria’s coast. That enduring Russian military presence now hangs by a thread, following the swift collapse of the Assad regime. The Kremlin appears to have avoided a panicked and disorderly departure, but its influence on NATO’s southern flank is likely to wane.