India’s solar module manufacturing industry is headed for consolidation over the next three to five years as overcapacity and rapid technology shifts squeeze smaller players, ICRA analysts said on Thursday (November 20, 2025).

The country has authorised about 110 gigawatts (GW) of module capacity under its approved list of models and manufacturers, but only 70–75% of that can adapt to newer technologies such as ToPCon and bifacial modules, the analysts said.

While India’s module output capacity is expected to increase to 165 GW, the country’s solar project installations are likely to be around 45-50 GW, leading to a potential overcapacity.

The manufacturing segment needs scale and integrated presence across value chain, which is technology and capital-intensive, said Girishkumar Kadam, SVP and group head, ICRA. Not all players can sustain that, so consolidation is inevitable.