VLADIMIR PUTIN has never been one to radically overhaul his top team. Those who fall foul of his rules may find themselves in jail, or blown out of the sky. But Russia’s autocrat typically prefers to keep the loyal close, watched over, and rewarded. News of the dismissal of Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister of 12 years, in the middle of war, thus raised eyebrows. Replacing him with Andrei Belousov, a technocrat with no previous direct relations to the security bloc, was even more unexpected.

When all the cards landed, Mr Putin appeared to be playing closer to type, eventually offering the dutiful Mr Shoigu a soft landing as secretary of the national security council. The fate of the incumbent Nikolai Patrushev, one of his most trusted aides and a hardline nationalist idealogue, remains unclear. Despite their appalling performance in 2022, the heads of Russian intelligence agencies, including Alexander Bortnikov, who has run the FSB security service for 16 years, remain in place.