Romania is caught between Putin, Trump and Europe

Romania is caught between Putin, Trump and Europe

Romania is caught between Putin, Trump and Europe

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Calin Georgescu has friends in high places. In the past few weeks the Romanian presidential hopeful has received support from America’s vice-president, J. D. Vance, and its director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard—as well as from Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR. Last November Mr Georgescu, a pro-Russian candidate, came top in the first round of his country’s presidential election. But the constitutional court annulled the vote amid suspicions that Russia interfered. The election will be restaged in May. Electoral authorities will decide by March 19th whether Mr Georgescu can run.

The candidate says that he has met aliens. He thinks that the moon landings were faked, and admires Romania’s fascists from the 1930s. More concretely, he vows to end aid to Ukraine. Before the election he was considered a fringe no-hoper; the big parties were stunned when he got 23% of the vote. In scrapping the result, the court ruled that he had received illegal financing and implied that Russia had boosted his viral videos on TikTok.

Romanians are bitterly divided. The establishment backs the court’s action, but both the populist right and many citizens fed up with politics support Mr Georgescu. Romania’s foreign partners are split, too. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, supported the court. But officials in Donald Trump’s administration, including Mr Vance, Ms Gabbard and Elon Musk, have rebuked the Romanians—in concert with Russia’s SVR, which on March 4th called Mr Georgescu a victim of the “European totalitarian-liberal elite”. The next day Romania expelled Russia’s military attaché and arrested six people for “plotting to take over state power”.

Candidates for the presidential re-run must register by March 15th. Remus Stefureac, who heads INSCOP, a polling firm, says Mr Georgescu leads the field with a share of up to 40% in the first round. He might still lose in the second round, if he is allowed to run. In October the court barred another pro-Putin candidate, Diana Sosoaca, saying her statements threatened Romania’s EU and NATO memberships. Last month prosecutors opened criminal proceedings against Mr Georgescu for anti-constitutional acts and misreporting campaign financing, which he denies. Police also briefly detained Horatiu Potra, an associate of Mr Georgescu’s with links to Russia who runs a security company that deploys mercenaries in Congo.

Romania’s biggest parties, the centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right National Liberal Party, are backing a joint presidential candidate. But Mr Georgescu’s popularity and the conflicting signals from America and Europe put them in a bind. Adding to the confusion, on February 27th prosecutors allowed Andrew Tate, an influencer, and his brother Tristan to leave for America. Supporters of Mr Trump, they were being investigated in Romania for rape and human trafficking. Officials say there was no formal American request; they seem to have been sprung by informal lobbying. Romanian leaders are always solicitous of America, says Rufin Zamfir of the GlobalFocus Centre, a think-tank. But now they are “like headless chickens”.

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