Taiwan has voted: bringing the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party an unprecedented consecutive third term in the presidency. Now the world is waiting on Beijing, which claims Taiwan but doesn’t rule it.

Saturday’s DPP victory, with around 40% of the vote, could mean more scary headlines in the near-term. Another set of large-scale military exercises, similar to the blockade mock-up in the wake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in 2022, is possible. Beijing announced it would cancel preferential tariff rates for 12 Taiwanese petrochemical products in late December. More trade broadsides are probably on the way.