The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has become the latest global body to raise its growth forecast for India in the last week, predicting that India’s economy will grow by 7.1% in 2026-27, up from 6.3% forecast in June. It did, however, say that growth in the second half of the year is expected to slow. 

This comes soon after the three most-recognised global ratings agencies — Moody’s, S&P Global, and Fitch Ratings — raised their respective growth outlooks for India over the last week. 

The OECD, in its Economic Outlook Interim Report September 2026 released on Wednesday, said that several countries have been able to mitigate the damage from the West Asia crisis by rapid growth in artificial intelligence-related investment and production in many economies. 

Domestic resilience

For India, however, it said domestic demand and government policy cushioned the impact. 

“This was also the case in China, whilst growth in several other G20 emerging market economies, such as India, Indonesia and Brazil, was underpinned by resilient domestic demand and government policies that cushioned households and firms from the impact of higher energy prices,” the report said.

However, the report also said that growth in the second half of the ongoing financial year 2026-27 was expected to slow. 

“Despite recent strong momentum, reduced purchasing power is also expected to weaken growth in India through the second half of this year, before a gradual recovery takes place in 2027,” the OECD said. 

It estimated that growth is projected to fall from 7.8% in 2025-26 to 7.1% in 2026-27, although this is higher than its June estimate for the year, and 6.5% in 2027-28.

Upgrades by others

S&P Global on Tuesday revised upwards its 2026-27 growth forecast for India to 7% from the previously-reported 6.6%. 

“Several factors drove growth to higher levels than we expected in the June quarter,” S&P Global said in its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific. “These include robust industrial activity, healthy consumption, strong goods exports, and accelerating government investment.”

However, it, too, added that it expects “growth to ease” in the second half of the financial year as the tailwinds from Goods and Services Tax rationalisation and income tax cuts diminish. 

“Weather-related risks warrant close monitoring,” S&P added. “Cumulative rains were 15% below normal till September 9, 2026, in the current monsoon season. Agricultural output and food inflation therefore remain key variables to watch.”

Fitch also raised its growth forecast for India in 2026-27 on September 22, to 6.9% from 6.4% predicted earlier. Its assessment was the same as the others, citing the growth upgrade to domestic economic resilience while also predicting a slowdown in the second half of the year.

Last week, Moody’s Ratings said the Indian economy’s “demonstrated resilience to the global shock wrought by the conflict in the Middle East has driven an upward revision” of its growth forecast for 2026-27 to 7% from 6% previously predicted.