Within weeks, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the hard-right National Rally (RN), could be propelled to the centre of French parliamentary politics—or out of it. Two imminent decisions will determine both the government’s survival and Ms Le Pen’s own future. The first is whether she decides to bring down Michel Barnier’s minority government over next year’s budget. The second depends on whether judges in a trial over the misuse of public funds decide in March 2025 to bar her from holding public office for five years with immediate effect.