India’s semiconductor chip production score is forecast to rise from 0% in 2025 to 13% by 2030, reflecting growing momentum around the country’s semiconductor ambitions, said Forrester, a Massachusetts-based research and advisory firm.

However, it said, India’s overall technology sovereignty score is expected to improve only modestly, from 32% in 2025 to 35% by 2030, underscoring that broader technology autonomy will require sustained investment in artificial intelligence (AI), cloud, data center capacity, software, talent, and strategic partnerships.

“For midsize and emerging technology powers such as India, the path forward will depend less on full self-sufficiency and more on targeted investments, open technologies, alliances, and durable public-private partnerships,’’ it said .

According to Global Sovereignty Forecast released by Forrester, globally, technology sovereignty will remain difficult to achieve. The average technology sovereignty score across the 14 countries assessed (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) will rise only minimally, from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030, while China and the US will continue to lead with the highest overall tech sovereignty scores, Forrester forecast.

Both countries (China and US) were expected to maintain their lead over the next five years, underscoring that tech sovereignty would remain concentrated among a small number of geopolitical and economic powers, it said.

Forrester’s maiden forecast on global tech sovereignty measured a country’s ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. The index also assessed each country across nine dimensions of technology sovereignty: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data center capacity relative to technology spending, data center autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing.