NSO projects Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in 2024-25, ICRA forecasts GDP growth at 6.9% in Q4 FY2025. Photo: X/@ICRALimited

ICRA on Monday (May 19, 2025) projected India’s GDP growth at 6.9% in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3% for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February.

In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5%, 5.6% and 6.2% respectively.

To achieve the NSO’s projected 6.5% growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6%.

The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY’25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 30.

ICRA in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9% in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2% in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6% for the quarter.

Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, ICRA projects a sharp step-down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3% in FY2024-25, from 9.2% in FY 2023-24.

ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.

Services sector exports continued to show double-digit growth, while merchandise exports contracted in YoY terms in Q4 FY2025 after expanding in the December quarter.