Growth in India’s gross domestic product has been estimated at 7.7% in the overall financial year 2025-26 and at 7.8% in the fourth quarter of that year, according to data released by the government on Friday (June 5, 2026). The GDP had grown at 7.1% in the previous financial year of 2024-25. 

According to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the provisional estimates of GDP growth in 2025-26 is slightly faster than the 7.6% that had been estimated in February 2026. 

The data also comes at a time when Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday, while announcing the Monetary Policy Committee’s decisions, said that GDP growth in the ongoing year 2026-27 was expected to slow to 6.6%. 

In the press conference on the GDP data, Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran said that the RBI’s assessment of GDP and inflation “seem fair estimates” and that he doesn’t see the need to second-guess them. 

Earlier this year, the government also updated the base year of the GDP data to 2022-23 and improved its methodology.

“GDP growth rate of 7.7% in FY 2025-26 and 7.8% in Q4 of FY 2025-26 reflect the inherent strength of our economy, the success of reforms and the hard work of 140 crore Indians,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X following the data release. “We shall leave no stone unturned to further ‘Ease of Living,’ ‘Ease of Doing Business’ and increase opportunities for our youth.”

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her own post, emphasised that manufacturing, trade, repair, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting, storage and financial, real estate and professional services sectors hit double-digit growth at both constant and current prices in 2025-26.

The data shows that the manufacturing sector is estimated to have grown at 10.7% in 2025-26 as compared to 9.3% in the first revised estimates for 2024-25. In Q4 of 2025-26, the sector grew at 7.3%, as opposed to 11.8% in the same quarter of the previous year. 

The ‘trade, repair, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting and storage’ sector similarly saw its growth estimate quicken to 11% in 2025-26 from 6.6% in 2024-25. In Q4, the sector accelerated to 12.4% from 6.3% in Q4 of 2024-25.

The agriculture sector, however, is expected to see growth slowing to 3% in 2025-26 from 4.2% in the previous year, with growth in Q4 slowing to 3.6% from 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024-25.

Notably, the data also shows that the growth of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is estimated to have quickened to 7.7% in 2025-26 from 5.8% in the previous year. 

Asset creation and investment, in the form of the gross fixed capital formation, is also estimated to have grown 8.2% in 2025-26 from 6.4% in 2024-25. 

Looking ahead, economists across the board have warned that growth in 2026-27 is going to slow due to the pressure on demand and price levels being exerted by the crisis in West Asia as well as the expectation of a lower-than-normal monsoon.