Investors are betting against the Fed—twice over. The first bet is the sudden turn from expecting the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer to instead expecting rapid and deep cuts next year.

The second bet is almost the exact opposite, that the Fed will have to keep rates much higher in the long run than it says it will. Treasury yields have come down, but at around 4.1% the 10-year yield remains more than 1.5 percentage points above the Fed’s forecast of long-run interest rates.