FOR TEN DAYS, since the shouting-match in the Oval Office, Ukraine has been scorched by Donald Trump’s wrath. Now comes a moment of catharsis—or another round of brutal punishment. On March 11th America and Ukrainian delegations are due to meet in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The American side says the goal is to create “a framework for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire”. Yet on the Ukrainian side, amid the hope, there are fears the meeting could be a shake-down, a delaying tactic or an attempt by Mr Trump to win concessions that benefit Russia. The summit comes as Russia is escalating its military pressure on Ukraine. Drone and missile strikes are hammering Kyiv and other cities. Russian and North Korean soldiers are making a new push to eject Ukraine from the small part of the Kursk region inside Russia that it occupies.
The talks involve powerful teams on both sides. The American delegation will include Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and Mike Waltz, the national security adviser. But the negotiating will probably be led by Steve Witkoff, Mr Trump’s confidant and roving envoy, who recently met Vladimir Putin and who is negotiating for the president over the Middle East, too. The Ukrainian side will be led by Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest aide and a powerful figure behind the throne. He will be joined by the foreign minister, Andriy Sibiha, the defence minister, Rustem Umerov, and Pavlo Palisa, a military aide. All were technically appointed by Mr Zelensky, but are also widely considered to be Yermak loyalists. One problem, however, is that Mr Yermak is not popular with the Trump team. And, in a strange situation that Ukraine insists is a coincidence, Mr Zelensky himself will be in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, on Monday, for talks with the Kingdom.
Ukraine has several objectives and has been shaping its strategy with France and Britain, which have become intermediaries between the White House and Kyiv. At a minimum it wants to sign a framework for joint American and Ukrainian mineral development. On March 7th Mr Zelensky also proposed an air and naval ceasefire: the idea, according to a Western official, is to put the ball back in Russia’s court by making demands on it. Both developments would, Western officials hope, create a sense that Ukraine is ready to engage with Mr Trump. If Russia says no to a framework that has been accepted by America and Ukraine, it would be up to Mr Trump to try to press Putin to accept its terms. But it is still not remotely clear what terms America will bring to Saudi Arabia.
Ukraine will probably make clear that any peace deal that limits its ability to re-arm, forces it to legally recognise occupied territory as Russian, or interferes in Ukrainian domestic politics—for instance by insisting on elections which are currently impossible because the country is under martial law—is unacceptable. Lastly, Ukraine may continue to demand security guarantees from America. It seems unlikely it will make progress on this point. Britain and France are asking that America provide a “backstop” force for European peacekeepers, should a full ceasefire be agreed. But so far, there has been no commitment from Washington. Last week America curtailed its intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
What does Russia want? Some reports in recent days have suggested that Mr Putin may be open to a truce under certain conditions. But the game unfolding may well be more sophisticated and cynical than that. A highly-placed source close to the Kremlin suggests Russia intends to demand a Ukrainian declaration of neutrality, and that foreign peacekeepers be ruled out. It is probably impossible for Ukraine to even consider such conditions—at least not before real negotiations have even begun. Kurt Volker, who served as Special Representative to Ukraine in Mr Trump’s first administration, says Russia will twist any truce proposal. “They’ll say: we can’t agree to that, but let’s do something else. Putin is smart enough not to just say no.” A former Ukrainian diplomat says American and Russia have been mirroring each others’ tactics, “salami-slicing” concessions from Ukraine before substantial negotiations begin. Any subsequent talks will seek to move further into Ukrainian red lines. The American end game has become a moving target, he says.
Any successful and enduring peace deal would require America to put pressure on the Kremlin to comply and then continue to do so. On March 7th Mr Trump did threaten to impose major sanctions on Russia. But most of the evidence suggests that he is sympathetic to Mr Putin. Hours later Mr Trump said “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine…In terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia.” Mr Volker says that “Trump is trying to keep Ukraine on a short leash because he wants them to accept whatever peace he can get…the Ukrainians are the obstacle because they’re not surrendering.”
A senior Ukrainian security official says he has seen no evidence that the Americans are contemplating a complete exit from Ukraine, yet, let alone Europe. “The hope is that as soon as we have a truce, we’ll be on a more rational track again,” he says.
Others are less sanguine. The dangerous prospect looms for Ukraine that failed talks could trigger even more pressure from America. Another Ukrainian official warns that America’s approach, if it continues, could leave Ukraine in a “grey zone”. That would force it to use more vicious military tactics for its survival. Already, he says, strong personalities dominate the negotiations, adding a Ukrainian proverb: “Yake yikhalo, take y zdybalo” (like attracts like). The stakes of Tuesday’s talks could not be higher. If they collapse, Ukraine is unlikely to get another chance: “The Americans will double down on instructional mode, and force whatever they and Russia decide on us.” ■
Editor’s note (March 10th 2025): This story was amended in order to make clearer that Ukraine occupies only a part of the Kursk region.
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