EVER SINCE France returned to NATO’s integrated military command structure in 2009, reversing Charles de Gaulle’s decision to quit it in 1966, it has been a broadly solid partner for America and the Atlantic alliance. Today the French contribute troops and fighter jets to alliance operations and air policing along the eastern flank with Russia; they also patrol the Black Sea with manned aircraft. As president, Emmanuel Macron has turned into one of the European Union’s most outspoken advocates for bringing Ukraine into NATO. He promises a coalition of military instructors to train newly mobilised recruits inside Ukraine, and to send the country French Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets.

Within weeks, however, France’s conduct of foreign policy may enter an uncertain, and even turbulent, period that could call such commitments into question. This is because of Mr Macron’s unexpected decision to call a snap parliamentary election, to be held on June 30th and July 7th An Ifop poll on June 24th confirmed the strong lead for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), on 36%, followed by the left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (NFP), on 29.5%. Mr Macron’s pro-European centrist grouping is stuck in third place, with 20%.