Rate rise fears as job numbers jump

Rate rise fears as job numbers jump

Australia’s jobless rate has fallen to 3.6 per cent in September, shrugging off fears from the Reserve Bank the jobs market had reached a “turning point” after its punishing round of rate rises.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports the country added 6700 jobs across the month, below economists’ expectations of a 20,000 increase.

The participation rate, which measures the proportion of the working-aged population who are working or looking for work, fell 0.3 points fell 66.7 per cent.

The ABS calculates about 20,000 people moved from being unemployed to not in the labour force, pushing the unemployment rate lower.

While Australia’s population surged by 563,200 in the year to March, with more than 80 per cent of these new migrants, workers have found it still just as easy to find a job, as employment and population growth have risen together.

At the current pace of population growth, about 35,000 new jobs need to be created every month for the unemployment and participation rates to hold steady.

“In trend terms, the growth in employment has gradually slowed, however the employment-to-population ratio and participation rates are still close to their recent record highs. These still point to a tight labour market,” ABS head of labour statistics Kate Lamb said on Thursday.

But while it’s good news for job hunters, it could be tough news for home hunters.

The stronger set of numbers will add pressure on the RBA to raise rates when its board meets on November 7.

Concerns of “turning point” in jobs market

In the minutes for its most recent meeting, Reserve Bank board members noted that the jobs market had reached a “turning point” as the supply of workers had increased while demand had moderated.

“Underemployment had risen a little more noticeably, as had the youth and medium-term unemployment rates,” the minutes read.

“Hours-based unemployment and underemployment rates had both ticked up in recent months from their lows reached in late 2022.”

As a result of its aggressive run of interest rate increases, which have risen by 4 per cent since May last year, the central bank expects the economy will slow pushing the unemployment rate to 3.9 per cent by year’s end, and to 4.5 per cent by mid-2025.

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