Aayush Puri
Last year, roughly one in five homes sold in Dubai was bought by an Indian. As a nation, we make up 22% of the homebuyers in the emirate – more than the Britishers (17%) and far more than the Chinese (14%). Indian traders, families and firms have been part of this city’s commercial life for generations. We are integral to Dubai’s success, and Dubai has continued to deliver for us. In the last week of March, at the height of media hysteria about capital fleeing the Middle East, Dubai homebuyers, many of them Indian, put down $2.7 billion, about ₹26,058 crore. The latest research into the Dubai property market shows it was the strongest week of the quarter.
More surprising still, three-quarters of those homes had not yet been built. Since March, between 72% and 77% of purchases were off-plan, meaning buyers will likely wait until around 2029 to collect their keys. Why make a four-year bet on a city everyone said is in trouble?
Panic in a market is like stirring a glass of water from the river. It shakes up the sediment so much that you can’t see through it. But let it settle, and you realise nothing has changed. The water is the same. Shrewd investment is being able to see through the gloom.
This spring, the gap between hysteria and hard facts was stark. Shares in Dubai-listed developers fell 34%. Once the situation settled, however, our research shows actual home prices had only fallen between 4% and 7%. Investors understandably took a beat, with enquiries down 40% in the days after the escalation, but the market held. Sales from January to March reached roughly $37 billion (₹3.5 lakh crore) and were 19% higher than the same period a year earlier. For the year, till June, transactions are slightly behind the record set in 2025, but comfortably 15% ahead of 2024.
Knowledge of the city
Those who predicted a crash in Dubai don’t understand this city. They still imagine a fragile boomtown with a dramatic skyline, rather than a sophisticated, diversified, and resilient market. Around 8 in 10 Dubai homes are bought without a mortgage, so if sentiment wavers, very few buyers face margin calls or forced sales. Buyers arrive from more than 150 countries, and 1,29,600 people bought here for the first time last year, up 23%. A base that broad absorbs panic among any one nationality.
It is no secret that Dubai’s success owes a great deal to India. An estimated 2 million Indians live and work here — the city’s largest expatriate community by some distance. The attraction is not hard to explain: the dirham is pegged to the dollar, so as the rupee drifts, a Dubai property quietly doubles as a currency hedge. Meanwhile, gross rental returns run at about 6.8% a year, before service charges. There is also no income tax, no capital gains tax and no property tax.
New hope
For Indian entrepreneurs, the appeal reaches beyond simply bricks and mortar. Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) has now passed 10,000 active registered firms for the first time, after a 30% rise in registrations over the past year. Even in the first quarter, as the conflict reached its peak, 775 firms joined DIFC, with roughly a third establishing a regional presence in March. Dubai is not only a place to park capital, but a city to build companies, raise money and serve the wider region. In free zones such as DIFC, firms can also retain 100% foreign ownership, giving founders control without needing to surrender equity to a local partner.
In February, the door for Indian investors opened wider. The UAE’s 10-year Golden Visa has long required property worth AED 2 million, roughly ₹5.2 crore, to qualify. Under updated rules, a mortgaged home now also meets the threshold, bringing an estimated 40% to 50% more buyers within reach of residency. For the Indian business owner who has run these numbers before and found themselves short, the Dubai dream may well be in reach.
That’s not to say that investing in the city is foolproof. Dubai, like any large market, is not a monolith. Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) and Jumeirah Village Triangle, two of the most heavily advertised addresses to Indian buyers, are the only areas we expect to fall this year, by around 3%. A lot of new properties are being built there and prices have not yet adjusted to that supply. Nevertheless, our central forecast for 2026 is residential property price growth of 4% to 7%. This is what a market looks like when it matures.
For a few weeks this spring, the water was too cloudy to see through. Dubai’s fundamentals, however, have not changed. Indians have been building in Dubai for a long time, and the city endures as a great place to build, invest, and raise a family.
The writer is CEO – Residential, ANAROCK Middle East, and CEO, ANAROCK Channel Partners (India)
Published – August 21, 2026 06:38 pm IST
