After the first month of this year’s monsoon ended in a massive 40% deficit, the India Meteorological Department has forecast that rainfall in July will also be “below normal” or less than 94% of what is usual for the month.  “Below-normal rainfall can pose significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability, and drinking water availability,” the agency warned. The outlook for July comes on the back of weak rainfall in June.

Data from the IMD showed rainfall in June was 99.5 mm against a long-period average of 165.3 mm, a fall of 39.8% from normal across all four meteorological subdivisions. The outlook comes weeks after Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan sounded the alarm, warning about the impact of a potential ‘super’ El Niño. “This could directly affect Kharif crops, particularly in rainfed regions where agriculture is heavily dependent on monsoon rains,” he told reporters on June 23, 2026.