POLAND’S PRESIDENTIAL election, which pits a centrist liberal against a hard-right nationalist, has been watched closely all across Europe. A liberal win would cement Poland’s newfound influence in the European Union’s mainstream; a populist one would shift it towards the EU’s growing bloc of nationalist insurgents. Just after voting ended on the evening of June 1st, two exit polls gave Rafal Trzaskowski, the candidate of the ruling liberal camp (pictured), a razor-thin edge. But a later exit poll gave the opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, a narrow lead.