IT WAS NO surprise that Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, finished ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the main hard-right opposition party, in the first round of the country’s presidential elections on May 18th. The surprise was that the margin was so tight. Mr Trzaskowski (pictured) took 30.8% of the vote, compared with 29.1% for Mr Nawrocki, according to exit polls. Polls beforehand had put Mr Trzaskowski much further ahead. For the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which is counting on the Warsaw mayor’s victory to push through its stalled agenda, the result is a worrying sign.