Voters punished the three parties that made up the “traffic-light” coalition, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, before that government’s collapse in November. Mr Scholz’s SPD collapsed into third place, with its worst-ever result. The Greens did worse than in 2021. And since the pro-business Free Democrats fell below the 5% threshold for representation in parliament, they will have no seats at all.

The only winner on the left is Die Linke (The Left), the part-heirs to East Germany’s ruling communists, who surged late in the campaign to win almost 9% of the vote. This is despite competition from one of the party’s former leaders, who just over a year ago formed her own splinter outfit, the “left-conservative” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Ms Wagenknecht’s party fell just 13,000 votes short of the 5% threshold (though it has threatened legal action over missing ballots from voters abroad).

Thanks to the FDP and BSW falling short of the 5% threshold, Mr Merz will have the numbers for a coalition with the SPD. But it will hold a narrow majority of just 13 seats. Coalition negotiations are likely to take two months or longer; Mr Merz hopes to have a government in place by Easter. After a polarising election campaign and bruised egos all round, that may prove optimistic.

Sources: Federal Returning Officer